The system, called Policy Analysis Market, would work like the commodities futures market - something like this: A person buys a futures contract if he believes a certain event--assasination of Yasser Arafat, for instance--will occur. If he does not think so, he sells the futures conract. The Pentagon then uses trends in this market to predict terror-related events.
What is wrong with this approach? Everything.
First of all, it will not work. Suppose a rich person wants to see Arafat assassinated. He buys up enough futures contracts to produce the result he wants. Then, if he is despicable enough, he arranges for the assassination to take place. A mere millionaire could easily become a billionaire this way.
Secondly, this gambling system will increase, rather than decrease, terrorism. It will ruin our reputation further in all the countries around the world. As Senator Byron L. Dorgan from North Dakota, one of 2 senators that are objecting to this plan (the other is Senator Ron Wyden of Oregon) says:
"Can you imagine if another country set up a betting parlor so that people could... bet on the assassination of an American political figure?"
We would scream. Whatever goodwill U.S. has left in the world (not too much) would further deteriorate. More people will hate us. More people will turn to terrorism.
We can't increase security through gamblng. We are so thoroughly sold on the superiority of competition over any other way of living, we can not see other people's viewpoints. We think of life as a game that we must win. And, of course, the best thing to win is money. Our infatuation with money and winning produces enemies, conflict and terrorism.
