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The Next E-commerce Metaphor
by Mark Neely


Lately I have been pondering how much longer online etailers will exist in their present form. No, this isn't (yet another) dire prediction of the future of dot coms - bear with me as I set the scene:

I have been having a lot of fun with a piece of software that is fast becoming an essential tool: Atomica .

Basically, it is a "set-and-forget" application. It launches automatically at boot and runs in the background. Whenever I come across a word that I want to look up, I just press the Alt key and right-click on the word - be it in an email, a Word document, on a Web site etc. Atomica pops-up, performs a live Web search and, within seconds (literally), it provides me with a standard dictionary definition for the word plus a collection of links to other possibly relevant info (e.g. a legal definition if it is a legal term, a map if it is a town/country name, company results/share data if it is a company, translations etc. etc.).

That kind of software really enhances the true power of the Web. It is tightly coded (the download is only a few hundred Kb) and it uses only 1Mb of RAM. The more I use Atomica, the more I wonder why there isn't an e-commerce tool like it. ( Sure, we have "shopping agent" tools, but most of them are Web-based, clumsy and tied to a limited range of services.)

This got me thinking about the future of the Amazons of this world. Could Amazon et. al. benefit from such a tool? I think the answer is yes.

History tells us that when new mediums are created, they are weighed down by prevailing metaphors. Early cinematic forays, for example, were merely filmed theatre (i.e. camera pointed at a stage from a fixed position while the play was staged in real life). Radio started as live play reading. Early TV shows were basically radio shows broadcast live on TV.

E-commerce is, I think, similarly stuck in the current retailing metaphor.

Early e-commerce Web sites were designed in the shadows of real-world retail stores (some sites completely replicated the retail experience - down to browseable isles). Even today, we must still "go to" an online etailer just like we are forced to visit their offline counterpart. I think this will soon change.

We will soon see a new interpretation placed upon the dynamic of a "pull" medium. Rather than etailers drawing traffic to their sites, users will equip themselves with software tools that they will use to pull data relevant to their buying needs to them - be it via a PC, PDA or some other device. How far are we from an Atomica-like tool that sits on our desktop (or in our hand), ready to launch into action when we feel the urge to research a purchasing decision (currently one of the primary uses of the Web)?

  • An email comes across our desk discussing a new book. Click on its title and its details are downloaded, together with reviews and pricing/shipping details from the three cheapest vendors with the book in stock.

  • You're reading a news Web site with a review about a holiday destination. Click on its name and details of your favourite airline's pricing plus flight schedule is displayed.

  • Your partner sends an SMS message indicating that s/he'd like to try a new restaurant. A few clicks and you view its menu and make a booking.

Current ecommerce technology isn't sufficiently advanced to allow a vendor-independent tool such as the one I describe. But XML is maturing fast, and within a year or three it will provide a readily "open" infrastructure within which live, vendor- and site-independent searches of product data (info., pricing, availability & processing costs) will be a reality.

Then, and only then, will we see ecommerce become the boon it has long been predicted to be.

Suddenly the Internet won't be a "place" - it will be a pure information medium. Rather than log on and connecting to a specific site in order to purchase a product or service, consumers will fire up a software tool and draw down the details they need.

What impact would such a reality have on the way we currently do business online? Suddenly those multi-million dollar Web sites seem a tad redundant. Open, searchable databases - the antithesis of proprietary databases - will be the key tool for selling online, not fancy front-ends.

Of course, the user-interface will still be of primary concern - but it will be the interface of the consumer's software tool that counts. Customers will finally be relieved from having to master dozens of different e-commerce processes (which is somewhat akin to having your word-processor of choice randomly rejig its interface).

Web sites will still exist in some form or another, primarily to service customers post-sale.

Think I might be on the wrong track? Consider the (very) recent announcement of a joint venture of sorts between eBay and Microsoft. While the highlight of the detail is to allow business-style auctions on Microsoft's small business portals, a core element is eBay's adoption of Microsoft's .Net programming tools (which are XML-based). Adopting .Net will ensure that eBay's auction service (and the vast data it generates) is "open" to 3rd party software developers, so that they can develop add-ons for eBay's service.

That is: independent software developers will be able to develop stand-alone software tools for eBay users to enhance their auction experience.

A step in the right direction indeed.

Mark Neely, LLB AIMM - mpn@infolution.com.au Principal Consultant - Infolution Pty Ltd - www.infolution.com.au "Creating powerful and effective communication strategies"


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